Hiroshima, August 6.
The morning began just like any other in Hiroshima. There was air raid warning, followed by the all-clear. The city was humming with ordinary rhythms of life – children walking to school, laborers working in the industrial buildings, life was difficult in the 1945 Japan but life carried on. By 8:15a.m., a blinding flash light split the sky. In an instant, Hiroshima became a living inferno. The temperature of hypocenter reached 300,000 Celsius (or 540k Fahrenheit), hotter than the sun’s surface. A fireball was formed up in the sky. In one second the fireball reached up to 280m (900 feet) in diameter, heat rays and blast wave from the detonation leveled almost the entire city. The people directly underneath was instantly charred, and people further away have their eyeballs and skin and muscles melting from their bones. Firestorm ensued in the city mostly built in wood1.
At 8:16am, the U.S. B-29 bomber turned around to have a good look on the aftermath of the bomb. This is the picture2 he took:
Rest is history.
The book “Nuclear War: A Scenario” by Annie Jacobsen reminded me the horror and the destruction caused by the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, except, after the nuclear arm race from 1949 to early 1990s, we have far more advanced and destructive thermonuclear bombs in the arsenal.
In this book Annie came out with a scenario where a nuclear war could take place, and gives a minute-by-minute scenes of how the events may unfold. Positively, it reads like a blockbuster film, which could be the reason why the “Dune” Director Denis Villeneuve is making a movie based on this book.
There are a few things I enjoyed about this book.
How prepared are U.S. Military?
One of the book’s fascinating insights is its exploration of U.S. military strategies, from the deterrence doctrine to the workings of InterContinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) and the silent threat of nuclear-armed submarines. This exploration of the military technologies and military response in nuclear conflicts was an eye-opening read for someone like me who has little knowledge about the topic. That said, it’s important to recognize the book’s limitations. Understandably, the author lacked the access to the latest military intelligence, much of which remains classified, and therefore some details and analyses may be outdated or speculative — a common criticism of this work.
Despite this, Annie Jacobsen succeeded in presenting complex military concepts in a clear and accessible way, making the subject matter engaging even for readers without a technical background.
Frailty of human experience
Through her narrative, I’m constantly reminded of the terrifying speed at which nuclear war could unfold. In just over 20 minutes, the first strike could land; within an hour, a full-scale nuclear apocalypse might reduce the nuclear states into ashes. It’s a chilling thought — how quickly life as we all know, the life that we took a lifetime to build – will vanish just like that.
This realization underscores the fragile and fleeting nature of our lives. Every day, we wake up, scroll through our phones, eat breakfast, and immerse ourselves in the routines and struggles of daily life — hoping that the struggle today will make tomorrow a little bit better. We fret over money, health, and (now seemingly trivial) frustrations, oblivious to how precariously we stand on the edge of catastrophe.
Yet paradoxically, this fragility can feel strangely empowering. Our daily concerns, when viewed against the vastness of the universe and the looming threat of nuclear annihilation, seem insignificant. Perhaps this is a call to savor each moment fully, to be present in our lives, and to cherish the beauty of the ordinary while it lasts.
Destructive power of thermonuclear bombs
Annie Jacobsen also exceled in describing the devastating power of thermonuclear bomb. Her description took me back to my visit to the Nagasaki museum, where the pictures and artifacts they displayed presented me visually the harrowing aftermath of the atomic bomb. The displays showed the utter devastation at ground zero and the sufferings of those who are involved. Many died on the spots, those who were lucky to survive bore the scars of radiation, with many succumbing to strange diseases and cancers years later. The bomb’s impact lingered not just in the moment of explosion but throughout the victim’s lifetime.
Today the stakes are even higher. Thermonuclear bombs, or hydrogen bombs, far surpass atomic bombs in their destructive capacity3.
Source: Weapon Of Last Resort: How The Soviet Union Developed The World’s Most Powerful Bomb
Even those far from nuclear-armed states like the U.S. and Russia would not escape the fallout. A nuclear war could be followed up by nuclear winter, which reduces sunlight by an estimated 70%, and covering the whole earth with radioactive clouds. Most plants and animals will die due to lack of sunlight. With food supplies gone, humanity itself could face extinction. Would we, just like the dinosaurs, vanish into the annals of history?
Are we close to full-scale nuclear war?
Moscow, September 26, 1983.
Deep within a Soviet Bunker, Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov sat in front of “Oko”, an early warning system Soviet developed to detect incoming nuclear strike. If the system detects inbound nuclear missile to the Soviet territory, his responsibility was to escalate this up the chain of command, so that Soviet can conduct immediate and compulsory retaliatory nuclear attack – a policy that follows the doctrine of “Mutual Assured Destruction” (MAD). Shortly after midnight, the system detected an ICBM strike from United States, with 4 more missiles following it. But something did not sit well with him. If United States were to start a nuclear war, the missiles would come in large amount that is sufficient to paralyze the whole Soviet Union. Instead of following the protocol, he waited to see if there is any other corroborating evidence – which did not come. Later, the “attack” was revealed to be a false alarm caused by a rare alignment of sun and clouds, which triggered the satellite’s sensors.
Petrov’s calm under the pressure and refusal to follow protocol have saved the humanity from a full-scale nuclear war. This incident remains a chilling reminder that the fate of the world once rested on the shoulders of one man who dared to trust his gut over his orders.
Perhaps even more chilling, this is not the only episode where the humanity avoided nuclear apocalypse. Numerous false alarm episodes, Cuban Missile Crisis, and Norwegian Rocket Incident come to mind. Humanity is lucky to have survived today.
Today the heightened geopolitical tension across the world has increased the risk of full-scale nuclear war. Ukraine-Russia war, Middle East conflict, China-Taiwan tension, all involved nuclear-armed states. While major nuclear states publicly endorses doctrine of deterrence and no first use policy, this volatile mix amplifies the risk of miscalculation, misunderstanding, or even technological failure leading to catastrophic outcome. This is also a theme that is present in Annie’s book, that misunderstanding, lack of dialogue and crisis management system can build up to a full-scale nuclear war.
Why
Why read this book? Annie Jacobsen’s Nuclear War: A Scenario serves as a stark reminder for the unimaginable destruction that nuclear weapons can unleash, and the fragile thread on which our existence hangs. It highlights how a single decision, often made by a select few, can alter the course of humanity forever. We are always one button away from catastrophe.
When the U.S. was deciding the location of the detonation of the atomic bomb, Henry Stimson, who spent time in Japan and understood its culture and people, passionately opposed the bombing of Kyoto. He saw Japanese past the demons and yellow monkeys portrayed in the U.S. wartime propaganda. President Harry Truman, lacking that personal connection, might have made a different, far more devastating decision4.
With the heightened geopolitical tensions and rising extremisms today, it feels as though we’ve stopped talking with one another. While atomic bombing of Japan was undeniably brutal, this small episode serves as the beacon of hope, that if people talk, meet, and understand each other more, we can avoid catastrophe and its devastating consequences.
This book is more than a chilling scenario; it’s a call to vigilance and reflection, a call for more dialogue. Will we learn from the past, or will history repeat itself?